At the moment, Bitcoin is going through a watershed event as it hovers just beneath a number of long-term moving averages that hold a lot of historical significance.
The behavior of the digital asset around these critical support zones is being watched very closely by analysts, with some dramatic implications in play that could well define the market’s trajectory for the next several weeks or even months.
The flagship cryptocurrency has dropped of late beneath its 111-day moving average (DMA) at $93,000 and the 200DMA at $87,000, two metrics long seen by traders and analysts as key signs of long-term trend strength. In past market cycles, these levels have typically given off robust signals of support. The recent breakdown beneath them is being seen more and more as a warning sign that sentiment among investors is kind of shifting. And not in a good way.
Further fueling the worry is Bitcoin’s recent testing of the 365DMA at $76,000, which is yet another key support level reflecting the average closing price for the past year. It is also a price point that is considered structurally supportive, especially during these tumultuous times. A break below it—a break that would confirm a recent downturn as something more than just a bad hair day for the price chart—could unleash a bearish scenario that sends Bitcoin tumbling much deeper into the abyss.
Short-Term Conviction Wanes as BTC Nears Volatility Triggers
What adds to the bearish signals from moving averages is how the Short-Term Holder realized price is positioned right now. It is sitting at $93,000, which coincides with the 111DMA that has now been breached. This metric represents the average acquisition price of coins held by newer market participants. It is a key gauge of short-term investor sentiment and conviction. If the STH realized price was less than or equal to the 111DMA, that would be an uptick in investor sentiment and no immediate sell-side pressure.
The current BTC price forms within the basic ±1 standard deviation bands surrounding the STH realized price, which today is at $101,000. The lower boundary of the range, in this case, is $72,000, and the upper boundary is $131,000. Selling pressure is relieved if HOURLY BULLISH. It is also block-by-block and hourly timeframe, attempting to reverse selling.
#Bitcoin is now below both the 111DMA ($93K) and 200DMA ($87K), having recently tested 365DMA at $76K. These long-term moving averages have historically acted as key support zones. A breakdown here may signal a deeper structural shift in market sentiment: https://t.co/4ElSgpdVMM pic.twitter.com/Hejc5o3fND
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 10, 2025
This lower band now serves as a psychological and technical benchmark. A straightforward fall below it would signal not just the retreat of short-term investors but also the likely onset of a corrective phase that could last for some time. In the past, dips below this threshold have resulted in heightened volatility and a sharper-than-normal descent.
Eyes on Deeper Support Levels: $71K and $65K
Current levels reflect how much unease has already developed, but analysts are now also looking at two other support zones that could be significant in the next few weeks: the Active Realized Price at $71,000 and the True Market Mean at $65,000. These are both metrics that utilize a much broader set of market data and are based on the aggregate cost basis of the coins that are actively in circulation.
The price at which active coins were last moved on-chain, on average, is what we call the Active Realized Price. This is a truly remarkable price to understand because it tells us what the average active user of the network paid for their coins and, therefore, the price at which they might be incentivized to sell. Much more on this in the next section.
The next metric is the True Market Mean. This is a more comprehensive price metric that covers all held supply, not just what was recently moved. It gives us a far better view of what value is across the entire supply of the asset.
These levels are vital because they are just above the “low-liquidity zone”—a thinly traded price region where Order Books and trading volumes drop off significantly. If Bitcoin were to fall into this zone, it could experience rapid price movements in either direction as it runs into the stability provided by a lack of orders in the market.
There is a downside risk that the price may drop into the $65K to $71K range, and this could generate some short-term panic. On the other hand, it might also entice long-term investors who have been waiting on the sidelines for better entry points. Those investors are often seen as ‘deep-pocketed’ and quite bullish on BTC, viewing price drops as opportunities rather than threats. It’s hard to count them out in this market.
A Defining Moment for the Market
To summarize, Bitcoin’s present placement beneath several significant moving averages, together with the possible violation of the STH support range, creates the appearance of a very fateful moment. It seems quite uncertain whether the market can recover to a placement above the 111DMA and 200DMA, or if it will instead fall into deeper levels around $65K, either of which seems a possible determinant of the next major move’s strength and direction.
Right now, everyone is focused on the charts, the liquidity profiles, and the investor behavior at these crucial levels. A bounce could bring back the confidence we lost and show that the long-term uptrend is still in place. But if we can’t hold these levels, it could be the start of a much deeper structural retracement that would test the mettle of even the most dedicated Bitcoin bull. A retracement that goes this deep would not be unprecedented in the Bitcoin space.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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