One of the most closely observed memecoin token unlocks is about to take place. In only two days, 40 million $TRUMP tokens—equivalent to about 20% of the current circulating supply and 4% of the total supply—will be unlocked.
This has justifiably set off a huge wave of speculation and concern, as the unlocking of such a large number of tokens could lead to huge price swings either up or down.
The forthcoming token status change is already making the token less stable. On-chain activity is revealing that a wallet tied to a developer has been busy in recent days shuffling around liquidity—perhaps in anticipation of or preparation for the status change. Approximately 16 hours ago, the address took out 366,000 $TRUMP and 4.6 million USDC from the decentralized exchange Meteora, leaving observers shaken.
Massive Liquidity Still in Play
Almost $215 million worth of assets are supposedly under the control of the wallet. In mid-December, that figure stood at 97.45 million USDC and 19.5 million $TRUMP. A week later, on December 24, the wallet was somehow emptied of 200 million USDC and 14.727 million $TRUMP, according to our analysis of the blockchain and the Twitter space that supposedly works in tandem with the GiveSendGo service.
TRUMP 天量解锁倒计时两天⏰ —— TRUMP Dev 地址已于 16 小时前从 Meteora 移除 36.6 万枚 $TRUMP 和 460 万枚 $USDC 的流动性
目前该地址在 Meteora 还有 1472 万枚 TRUMP 和 2 亿枚 USDC 的流动性，而链上仍持有 1538 万枚 TRUMP，价值 1.2 亿美元；钱包地址 https://t.co/LtcHWbfHie
TRUMP 将于… https://t.co/rPWot5GGWY pic.twitter.com/DfitVgTjnk
— Ai 姨 (@ai_9684xtpa) April 16, 2025
Currently, there are 15.38 million $TRUMP tokens on the blockchain, which are unallocated. That’s worth about $120 million at today’s prices. In just a few days, a new batch of 40 million tokens is set to unlock, and with that, the threat of a fire sale coming from new token holders will be very much real. If this new cohort of token holders heads for the exits—by which I mean the wonderfully illiquid liquidity pools of decentralized exchanges—it’s hard to see how the price of TOUT in terms of tether to the USD won’t head south.
These developments highlight the risks concentrated in tokens that have either concentrated ownership or limited liquidity buffers. While token unlocks are standard practice in the crypto space—often scheduled in advance to release tokens for team compensation, ecosystem growth, or community incentives—the sudden influx of supply into the market can significantly disrupt price dynamics.
A History of Speculation and Sudden Moves
The TRUMP token, which is part of the constantly changing memecoin ecosystem, has ridden speculative hype, narrative-driven interest, and political branding straight up into the opportunity zone. At the same time, it has brought a fair bit of volatility to holders, with the speculative and narrative-driven nature of this project causing tidal waves in the price. So, when big guys inside the project—like the developer wallet—do something big, like recently withdrawing a huge chunk of liquidity that the token seems to have a hard time living without, you can understand why people might get a little concerned.
Of even greater concern is the context: removing liquidity was not insubstantial. Unloading 4.6 million USDC and several hundred thousands in $TRUMP tokens, just days before a major unlock, sends an unmistakably strong signal that the token’s price environment may be entering troubled waters. Whether these were removed for redeployment, risk management, or straight-up self-protective maneuvers is still an open question. But bad timing doesn’t even begin to cover it.
Although no evidence definitively shows malicious intent, several factors together make the situation concerning. First, a large scheduled unlock is coming up. Second, there are substantial holdings by what could best be described as insider addresses, and third—most recently—there have been some liquidity shifts. All these add up to why we in the research department believe the prudent path for market participants is to proceed with caution.
Market Participants Urged to Monitor Closely
In any market, but especially one as opaque as crypto, sudden changes in liquidity can be significant. If an asset is losing liquidity, that’s usually bad. And if it’s getting liquidity all of a sudden, that’s a potential red flag. Of course, if you find yourself in a market situation where your asset has suddenly lost or gained liquidity, you know you’re in a market situation where your asset is losing or gaining liquidity.
At this stage, the most critical question isn’t whether TRUMP will be volatile—it’s how much. If the unlocked tokens are doled out gradually, through controlled staking, liquidity provisioning, or ecosystem initiatives, the damage might be minimal. But if a significant chunk hits the open market all at once, it could send the price reeling and create a ripple effect throughout the wider memecoin sector.
Currently, everyone is focused on April 18. Depending on how things unfold next, it could either signal an expansion into new territory for TRUMP holders or be a recognition moment that TRUMP just isn’t that popular.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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